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This project investigated the origin of these losses and gains and explored the potential for calibrated precipitation forecasts to predict weather-related losses and gains at lead times of 1-5 days. Predictability was found to be low due to significant unexplained variance in the loss-gain time series unrelated to weather, as well as generally limited precipitation predictability in this area. However, probabilistic forecasts were found to skillfully predict increased odds for all gains and medium-size gains. While specific to the domain of YAO, these results might be transferable to other Reclamation operations in need of short-term loss-gain forecasts.", "catalogStatusId":1, "metadataFilePath":null, "metadataStandard":{ "_id":"ISO", "definition":"International Standards Organization (ISO) 19115-1:2014 metadata content standard, and ISO 19139:2007 metadata implementation standard", "createDate":"2018-11-20T13:25:52+00:00" }, "createDate":"2021-10-15T17:27:29+00:00", "updateDate":"2022-01-12T22:12:56+00:00", "programNames":[ "Science and Technology Program" ], "generationEffort":"S&T Project 1845: Development of short-range forecasts of weather-driven channel losses and gains to support Reclamation water management", "generationEffortId":125, "subTheme":{ "_id":36, "subTheme":"Water Supply Analysis", "definition":"Data related to supplying water for agricultural, municipal, and industrial water uses, including supply types and water losses.", "createDate":"2020-09-03T20:39:49+00:00" }, "tags":[ "Water Supply Forecasting", "Loss-Gain", "Precipitation" ], "themes":[ "Water" ] }, "type":"CatalogRecord", "relationships":{ "location":{ "data":[ { "id":"/rise/api/location/3717", "type":"Location" } ] }, "catalogItems":{ "data":[ { "id":"/rise/api/catalog-item/11490", "type":"CatalogItem" }, { "id":"/rise/api/catalog-item/11491", "type":"CatalogItem" } ] } } }, { "id":"/rise/api/catalog-item/11490", "attributes":{ "_id":11490, "itemTitle":"S&T Project 1845 Final Report:Development of short-range forecasts of weather-driven channel losses and gains to support Reclamation water management", "itemDescription":"Reclamation\u2019s Yuma Area Office (YAO) in Yuma, AZ, manages the last stretch of the Lower Colorado River before it crosses the border with Mexico. YAO navigates the many complex dependencies on the river on a daily basis, from deliveries to regional irrigation districts to water quality and volume regulations under an international water treaty. Despite detailed accounting of water releases and diversions from upstream dams and water users, unexplained daily fluctuations in the amount water arriving in Yuma, termed \u2018losses\u2019 and \u2018gains\u2019, nonetheless occur. The unpredictable nature of these losses and gains complicates YAO\u2019s operations. Thus, forecasts of losses and gains could be of value to YAO\u2019s operations. Research Activities and Results: This project aimed at investigating the main causes of unexplained daily fluctuations of losses and gains in the reach between Parker Dam and Imperial Dam on the Colorado River and to develop tools to forecast them. Using existing observational records, the project confirmed the existence of loss and gain events that rise above the baseline variability. It was revealed that a significant backwater effect exists in the lower part of the reach, closely tied to the weekly release schedule at Parker Dam. After correcting for this backwater effect, major precipitation events were found to be responsible for the most significant gain events, but that smaller precipitation events are usually not detectable against the baseline variability. Precipitation forecast skill on 3-day timescales was found to be moderate, even after locally calibrating the precipitation forecasts. Consequently, loss-gain forecast skill based on precipitation forecasts remains low, although probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble calibration might still offer value for operations planning purposes. 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the relevant file is 'precip_06h_CCPA_2p5km_LCB_NaN_eq_zero_huc8.nc', which is a netcdf file containing 6-hourly precipitation data from 2002 to 2017 aggregated to the HUC8 study region 15030104. - /precip_forecasts/new: contains the final calibrated GEFS daily precipitation forecast ensemble (see https://github.com/mscheuerer/PrecipitationFields for more details on the method), also aggregated to HUC8 15030104. - /scripts: contains matlab script 'yuma_analysis_for_github.m' that reads and processes the gage data and calculates loss-gain time series; also creates most figures shown in the report - /streamflow_data: contains the gage data used and described in the report: water orders, actual releases from Imperial Dam, arrivals at Imperial Dam, and diversions in between - data_20030101-20171231.csv: aggregate data file (produced by 'yuma_analysis_for_github.m') with all gaged flow data, the loss-gain time series (with and without backwater correction) and precipitation observations", "itemRecordStatusId":1, "isModeled":false, "hasProfile":false, "disclaimer":"The findings and conclusions of this work are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Bureau of Reclamation.", "sourceCode":null, "locationSourceCode":null, "externalDataUrl":null, "parameterSourceCode":null, "modelNameSourceCode":null, "temporalStartDate":null, "temporalEndDate":null, "spatialShortDescription":null, "publicationAuthor":"Hong Nguyen-DeCorse, Flavio Lehner, Andrew Wood, Michael Scheuerer", "publicationEditor":null, "publicationPublisher":"Bureau of Reclamation", "publicationPublisherLocation":"Denver, CO, USA", "publicationFirstPublicationDate":"2021-09-30T12:00:00+00:00", "publicationPeriodicalName":null, "publicationSerialNumber":null, "publicationDoi":null, "publicationVolume":null, "publicationIssue":null, "publicationSection":null, "publicationStartPage":null, "publicationEndPage":null, "createDate":"2021-10-15T17:47:19+00:00", "itemType":{ "_id":"DATA", "definition":"Data file", "createDate":"2018-11-28T14:19:59+00:00" }, "matrix":{ "_id":18, "matrix":"N/A", "definition":"Matrix is not applicable to this item", "createDate":"2020-03-26T13:58:55+00:00" }, "spatialGeometry":null, "spatialResolution":null, "spatialTransformation":null, "spatialOpenDataURL":null, "metadataFilePath":null, "binaryFilePath":"https://data.usbr.gov/rise/content-rise-public/rise/catalog-item/binary/yuma_project.zip", "updateFrequency":{ "_id":14, "updatefrequency":"not planned", "definition":"there are no plans to update the data", "createDate":"2018-11-14T15:17:58+00:00" }, "updateDate":"2022-01-12T22:14:38+00:00", "verticalDatum":null, "dataStructure":"Uploaded file(s)", "itemStructureId":3, "parameterGroup":null, "parameterId":null, "parameterName":null, "parameterUnit":null, "parameterTimestep":null, "parameterTransformation":null }, "type":"CatalogItem", "relationships":{ "catalogRecord":{ "data":[ { "id":"/rise/api/catalog-record/4633", "type":"CatalogRecord" } ] }, "parameter":{ "data":[] } } } ], "name":"Lower Colorado River between Parker Dam and Imperial Dam" }, "id":3717, "links":[ { "type":"application/json", "rel":"root", "title":"The landing page of this server as JSON", "href":"https://api.wwdh.internetofwater.app?f=json" }, { "type":"text/html", "rel":"root", "title":"The landing page of this server as HTML", "href":"https://api.wwdh.internetofwater.app?f=html" }, { "rel":"self", "type":"application/geo+json", "title":"This document as JSON", "href":"https://api.wwdh.internetofwater.app/collections/rise-edr/items/3717?f=json" }, { "rel":"alternate", "type":"application/ld+json", "title":"This document as RDF (JSON-LD)", "href":"https://api.wwdh.internetofwater.app/collections/rise-edr/items/3717?f=jsonld" }, { "rel":"alternate", "type":"text/html", "title":"This document as HTML", "href":"https://api.wwdh.internetofwater.app/collections/rise-edr/items/3717?f=html" }, { "rel":"collection", "type":"application/json", "title":"USBR Reclamation Information Sharing Environment (RISE)", "href":"https://api.wwdh.internetofwater.app/collections/rise-edr" } ] }